In 2023, Social Security benefits got an 8.7% COLA, the largest cost-of-living adjustment since 1981. According to the United States Social Security Administration (SSA), "COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)." So, when inflation starts to cool, that means a lower cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients. Currently, inflation is at its lowest level in two years, dropping to a 12-month rate of 3.0% in June. This is down from 4.0% in May and 4.9% in April.
David Payne, staff economist from the Kiplinger Letter, forecasts a 3% Social Security COLA in 2024, after this year’s 8.7%.
