For most of the past two years, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) has stood at the summit of the stock market. As the chipmaker whose processors power much of the artificial intelligence boom, it was perhaps no surprise that it became the first company ever to reach a $5 trillion market cap. After first hitting that record in October 2025, it has spent much of 2026 comfortably above the mark.
Yet its perch has not gone unchallenged. In July of this past summer, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) briefly leapfrogged it, closing in on the $5 trillion milestone before NVIDIA reclaimed the top spot. Now, the iPhone maker is closing the gap once more. Its shares are up about 6% since the first week of September to roughly $4.98 trillion, while NVIDIA, down about 1.6% over the same stretch, has stalled at around $5.50 trillion.
For companies this size, that's close enough to make another overtake a real possibility in the coming weeks. The question is no longer whether Apple can catch NVIDIA, but whether it can stay ahead once it does.
How the Race Has Tightened
The shift in momentum has been steady rather than sudden, with Apple outpacing NVIDIA for much of the past 12 months. Since this time last year, for example, Apple's shares have climbed around 32%, comfortably outpacing NVIDIA's 24%. Since early August, Apple has rallied roughly 11% while NVIDIA has managed barely 1%.
Recently, Apple's uptrend has come from a clear catalyst. Its Sept. 9 product launch, headlined by a new lineup of premium iPhones and its first-ever foldable model, generated both pre-release hype and post-release results. Early demand signals have been encouraging, and analysts have continued to warm to the story, with some, like TD Cowen, already lifting their price target to $400 this month.
NVIDIA's plateau, by contrast, seems to be less about its business faltering and more about nerves. Its growth remains phenomenal, but investors have grown more cautious about how long the frenzied AI-infrastructure spending can last, and about risks ranging from thinning margins to Chinese export restrictions. As a result, the stock hasn’t hit a fresh all-time high since May.
What Would Get Apple Over the Line
To match NVIDIA's current market cap, Apple's shares would need to rise only around 11%, a move it has already managed once since early August. Given how the two have diverged lately, a continued rally in Apple, paired with more of NVIDIA's recent drift, could mean the gap closes within a matter of weeks.
The most likely fuel would be further evidence that the new iPhones are flying off the shelves. If demand for the latest premium models proves as strong as the early indicators suggest, and the foldable carves out a lucrative new niche, the rally should have the legs to keep going. Investors won't have to wait long for a read on that, with Apple's next earnings report due at the end of October and set to reveal whether the early enthusiasm is showing up in the numbers.
Why It's Far From a Done Deal
Yet for all Apple's momentum, the underlying numbers still favor the incumbent, and this is the crucial caveat. NVIDIA may have smaller share-price gains lately, but its business is growing at a blistering pace, with revenue expanding more than 80% over the past year versus Apple's far more reserved 14%.
That difference matters enormously, and it explains why NVIDIA commands the larger valuation in the first place: investors are happy to pay for far faster growth. For Apple to not just catch NVIDIA but stay ahead, it would need to sustain its rally in the face of a rival still expanding several times quicker, no simple task.
Apple's own path carries risks, too. The foldable market remains small, and its aggressive pricing could deter some buyers. If the iPhone cycle disappoints, or enthusiasm fades, the recent surge could stall as quickly as it began.
Does the Top Spot Even Matter?
So is Apple about to reclaim the top spot? Based on current trends, it is tantalizingly close, and if its rally holds while NVIDIA continues to drift, the overtake could happen in the weeks ahead. For now, momentum is firmly with the iPhone maker.
However, investors should be wary of reading too much into a market-cap milestone. Being the world's most valuable company is a headline, not a verdict on which stock is the better buy, and NVIDIA's faster growth means that any lead Apple seizes could prove short-lived.
For now, the race is remarkably close, and a symbolic changing of the guard may be near. Whether it proves lasting, though, will come down to the far less glamorous business of who can actually keep growing. Apple has the momentum, NVIDIA has the numbers, and the coming weeks will show which matters more.
The article "Can Apple Overtake NVIDIA as the World's Most Valuable Company?" first appeared on MarketBeat.
