It was watching Oscar Onley go wheel-to-wheel with two of road cycling’s all-time greats, Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, at last year’s Tour de France that I, and most observers, really began to believe that the Scot might just be a generational talent.
So few riders in global cycling have what it takes to get anywhere close to Pogačar and Vingegaard, particularly at the Tour de France - the pair, between them, have won every Tour for the past seven years - yet Onley was right there stage after stage.
The Scot, ultimately, finished fourth in that Tour de France, recording the best general classification result by a Scot since the great Philippa York (who rode as Robert Miller), four decades previously.
Inevitably, the big guns came calling for Onley after that astonishing 2025 Tour performance and his move to Netcompany Ineos (which was formerly Team Sky) brought not only a sizeable pay check for Onley, but considerable pressure. After all, Team Sky, as it was known in the 2010s, changed the face of British cycling. It delivered the first-ever British winner of the Tour in Bradley Wiggins in 2012 and followed that with four wins for Chris Froome and one for Geraint Thomas.
Onley’s transfer to Netcompany Ineos, from the team which developed him into a genuine grand tour contender, Team Picnic PostNL, was accompanied with more than a few questions as to whether or not Onley has what is needed to lead a team of this stature. After all, it’s one thing being a big fish in a small pond as he was at Picnic Post NL, it’s another thing entirely to be the main guy in one of the biggest road racing teams on the planet.
Onley’s start to his Netcompany Ineos career was far from conspicuous; the opening part of his debut season with the team was marred by illness and injury, with the most devastating blow coming at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes in June, during which a crash resulted in a broken collarbone and forced him out of this summer’s Tour. Being deprived of the chance to build upon his breakthrough result at the 2025 Tour was hugely disappointing for both Onley and the growing fanbase he’s building.
Most observers had written-off this season for the Scot and that was fine - there’s no shame in chalking-up one’s debut season with a new team to experience and looking to really make a mark in year two.
Onley, though, clearly had other ideas. This weekend, the Scot will, unless something catastrophic happens today, finish inside the top five in the 2026 Vuelta a España. He’ll also win the white jersey, awarded to the top young rider, with Onley having led the standings for this for much of the duration of the three-week race.
Onley’s performance over the past three weeks has not attracted the level of attention from the mainstream media as his 2025 Tour result - the cycling media has, of course, given plenty of attention to the Scot - but this is a more down to the Tour generating such vast media coverage well beyond the cycling sphere than any reflection on Onley's result.
But there’s certainly an argument that this performance from Onley has been equally impressive as his 2025 Tour and, in many ways, even more so.
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Firstly, the unexpected nature of this result is particularly striking. While Onley will have hundreds of training miles in his legs over the past few months, his race results hadn’t been particularly eye-catching. And so expectations of Onley as he went into his first grand tour of 2026 were low.
But the Kelso mans has defied all the odds over the past three weeks of this Vuelta.
He began strongly and maintained that form day after day. By the end of week one of the race, he’d established himself inside the top five in the general classification, and he’s remained there ever since.
When he’s confirmed, later today, as the best young rider in the race and winner of the white jersey, he will become the first Scot to win a jersey at a grand tour since Millar (now York) won the mountains classification at the Giro d’Italia in 1987. The magnitude of this achievement from Onley cannot be overstated, and what’s so remarkable is that this is, almost certainly, just the beginning.
What’s so notable about Onley is just how at home he looks in the company of the world’s very best, despite the fact he’s still remarkably youthful. Still only 23 years old - he’ll turn 24 next month - Onley is very, very young to be riding at this level. And having been at Netcompany Ineos for less than a year, and benefitting from the support that comes with being at a team of this level, Onley still has a lot of room for improvement.
That Netcompany Ineos has identified him as one of the leaders of their squad that also includes a number of extremely accomplished men says everything about the potential Onley possesses. So, just how far can this Scot go in road cycling?
A general classification podium place at a grand tour seems imminent and indeed, it would be fitting were Onley to manage this at next summer’s Tour de France given the 2027 Tour Grand Départ begins in Edinburgh. Whether it’s next summer, or slightly later, a top-three finish seems inevitable for Onley - he’s just too good not to achieve this.
But is it realistic to aim even higher? I’d suggest it surely is.
Winning a grand tour takes a monumental effort, and it only takes one look at the select list of those who have claimed grand tours over the past few years to show how difficult it is.
Testing as it may be, though, it is far from out of reach for Onley.
If we compare his development to his fellow British riders who have won grand tours, Onley has a considerable march on them. Bradley Wiggins was 32 years old when he won his first grand tour, Geraint Thomas was also 32 and Chris Froome was the youngest of the lot at 28 years old when he won his maiden grand tour.
Froome went on to be the most successful of this trio by wining four Tours, a Giro and a Vuelta, but given Onley’s combination of talent, physicality and mental strength, it seems reasonable to ponder if he could even match Froome’s achievements.
This is, of course, a very, very long way down the road for Onley.
But it says everything about the Scot that it’s not outrageous to be suggesting he could scale these heights.
Scotland has produced only a handful of truly world-class road riders and already, Onley has ensured he’s included in that group. The only question remaining is just how far he can ultimately go.
