THE Scottish Government has been warned against pursuing an “unwinnable and deeply damaging” cuts agenda amid mounting speculation about an early Westminster election.
There is growing expectation that Andy Burnham could go to the polls as early as next spring as he seeks his own mandate from the electorate – and SNP grassroots members fear John Swinney’s public sector reforms could put the party at a disadvantage.
The First Minister unveiled his Programme for Government at the beginning of the month, where he promised to deliver “most radical reshaping of public services” in Holyrood’s history.
Despite his arguments, there would be no compulsory redundancies, unions have expressed fears that the proposed reforms – which include taking an axe to a number of quangos and cutting the number of health boards from 14 to just two – will result in job losses as the SNP embark on a major cost-saving programme.
Simon Barrow, the national secretary of the influential SNP Trade Union Group, told the Sunday National that the party should change tack and that Swinney’s plans would “alienate many of the voters the party needs to win over to stay in power and press for independence”.
Barrow said: “It looks as if the Scottish Government is currently heading into an unwinnable and deeply damaging quagmire in the public sector, where it hopes that cuts can be masked by a limited promise of no compulsory redundancies, and improvement in delivery secured by restructuring, centralisation and ‘efficiency savings’.
“History and hard economics suggest that this approach will cost more than anticipated, deliver far less than promised, and alienate many of the voters the party needs to win over to stay in power and press for independence.”
The SNP activist said this was put into even sharper focus given Burnham’s comments about Scottish independence last week, where he admitted there should be an independence referendum if the people of Scotland wanted one.
Barrow said: “What is clear from Andy Burnham rowing forward and then backwards on Scotland’s right to decide its constitutional future is that waiting for a clear green light from Westminster is political folly.
“This is a reminder, once more, that politics shapes process, not the other way round. Yes, polls in Scotland have been leaning in the direction of independence recently, but the reality is that many people’s opinions are as volatile as the political situation we face, and cost of living concerns trump constitutional ones every time when push comes to shove.
“The task for those who wish to see Scotland’s future in its own hands is to shift the dial decisively in favour of self-determination to a regular 55% or more in polling. As Burnham’s telling moment of weakness in the Commons demonstrates, that creates a situation in which the continual denial of democracy begins to produce a crisis, even for those who wish to thwart change.”
He added that a constitutional convention was “now overdue” and that the SNP should seek to bring together “large swathes of civic Scotland, alongside the trade unions in particular” to hash out “a realistic vision and plan for a fairer, more equal and sustainable Scotland based on control of our technological and green energy future” while also seeking consensus on “the right of people in Scotland to decide their own political and constitutional future”.
Barrow said: “The reason those two questions are unavoidably interlinked is that people will only be persuaded to take a constitutional leap if they see the real change that could bring. This must entail far greater control of our own abundant resources, rather than allowing them to be squandered by Westminster or grabbed by unaccountable corporate investors.
“After nearly 20 years in government, the SNP look at sea as far as this big political picture is concerned. That could be seriously costly if, as some are now thinking, Burnham may call a snap election early next year, if Reform UK look like they are unravelling.
“The three big issues that need addressing in Scotland, and which are continually being avoided through small mitigations, are the wealth gap and the impact that has on resources available to the Scottish Government, the urgent need for local government finance reform, and a joined-up industrial, energy and environmental strategy which shows what a prosperous self-governing future could look like.”
There is concern among some sections of the party membership that SNP policies, including developing a nationally owned energy company as is being pursued in Wales, have been agreed by members but not implemented by the party in power.
Barrow added: “This requires bold, transformational policies, which the party has adopted, but the Government has been stalling on: local wealth and asset taxes; a forward-driving national energy initiative networked out of regional hubs; a proportional property tax to replace the unfair Council Tax, and ending wasteful private sector outsourcing and the selling off of our renewable resources to foreign investors.
“Policies like that, in tandem with a determined political push on Scotland’s right to decide, are places where the SNP can forge a strong and dynamic relationship with trade unions and other civic partners. But this has to be grounded in measurable action, not more words.”
He said that the SNP’s conference in October was a chance to debate these issues and argued against the party “avoiding crunch economic issues and getting caught up in arguments about unworkable [unilateral declaration of independence]-style ideas about independence”.
Barrow added: “There is no shortcut to the necessity of the people of Scotland voting on their constitutional future, and no route to achieve that which does not involve making independence the common-sense political aspiration for a stable majority.”
Burnham has been predicted by several figures recently to be on the brink of calling a snap election to free himself from the constraints of Keir Starmer’s 2024 manifesto.
Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, told GB News earlier this week that the Prime Minister may call an early election, but this would depend on the outcome of his first Budget due later in the year.
The top trade union official said: “I don't think that the public are battering down Andy Burnham's door in Downing Street, saying, 'Let's have a general election'. We've got to get through the first Budget.
“Let's see Andy's 10-year plan. He might decide, actually, 'I've not got enough room within the manifesto to deliver the change that I think we need to see'."
But if Burnham finds himself boxed in by tax and spend promises made to the electorate two years before under Starmer, he may choose to go to the polls.
Current opinion polling suggests that this would yield a hung parliament. Electoral Calculus’s average of recent polls suggests that Labour could emerge the largest party but short of a majority on 25.4% of the vote, with Reform UK behind on 23.8% and the Tories falling to 19.8%.
At Reform UK’s conference earlier in the month, leader Nigel Farage predicted Burnham would call an election for the spring.
His party was dogged with questions over dodgy donations over the summer, and allegations of taking unlawful support in a sting operation are being investigated by the police. Reform have denied wrongdoing.
A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “Public service reform will help to ensure that Scottish Government investment is focused on frontline delivery, with the right staff in the right roles to deliver real improvements in public services.”
