Half of Europeans cannot picture a credible path to a stronger EU, an “imagination gap” that risks ceding the political initiative to nostalgic far‑right forces, according to a major new study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
The report, based on 5,834 AI‑moderated interviews in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland, plus desk research in 15 EU states, identifies four broad "attitudes".
Catalyst for renewal
Around one in five are "positive", with some seeing crises as a catalyst for renewal; the largest group in most countries, however, is "negative", viewing Europe as being in decline; roughly a third of those questioned are "uncertain", wanting more Europe but doubting that leaders can deliver it; and about a tenth are "disconnected".
While EU leaders have framed recent shocks — war in Ukraine, energy turmoil and US unpredictability - as Europe's "independence moment" in the EU Commission's 2026 Work Programme, public perception lags behind.
Some 68 per cent describe Europe today in terms of deterioration or "lost normality" versus only 12 per cent speaking of awakening or renewal, according to the ECFR study.
Nearly three-quarters say Europe is coping badly with its biggest challenges, blaming national governments twice as often as EU institutions.
Sources of doubt
The main sources of doubt among the "uncertain" group - the second-largest, at around a third of those questioned - are a perceived slowness in European decision-making; perceived double standards and capitulation to stronger powers; and insecurity over war, dependence on the US, and the rise of the far right.
The authors warn that when people cannot envision a believable tomorrow, they become "receptive to visions that recast the past as the future" — a dynamic, they say, that benefits far-right parties currently leading the polls in several countries.
To counter this, pro-European leaders should harness "future nostalgia": a longing not for a bygone era, but for the feeling that a better future was once within reach.
With Europe increasingly debated through domestic concerns — migration, climate, cost of living — the EU's fate will be decided in national elections, where the "uncertain" hold the balance, the report said.
(With newswires)
