The honeymoon period of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul appears to be over. Just four months in Government House -- despite the Bhumjaithai Party's commanding majority in the Lower House -- his popularity has declined sharply.
A Nida poll last week placed him second behind Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, leader of the People's Party. The result reflects growing public doubts, driven largely by corruption allegations surrounding recruitment exams conducted by the Department of Local Administration (DLA) under the Interior Ministry. Police have arrested local officials accused of altering answer sheets and demanding kickbacks in exchange for favorable results.
Payments reportedly ranged from 350,000 to 800,000 baht per applicant. With more than 430,000 candidates competing for 6,500 positions last December, investigators believe the ring may have pocketed up to 4.5 billion baht.
Mr Anutin, who also serves as interior minister, has vowed to spare no one. The public now waits to see whether law enforcement will catch the masterminds or merely punish rank‑and‑file officials. To restore trust, the government must prove it can reel in the "big fish" behind the scandal.
The DLA saga is only one of several political time bombs facing Mr Anutin and the Bhumjaithai Party. Allegations of rigging the senatorial election continue to haunt the party's image. Executives are accused of cozy ties with the so‑called "blue senators" -- a bloc of 130 in the Upper House alleged to influence independent institutions such as the Election Commission and Constitutional Court.
Opposition parties and activists are pressing the EC to send the case to court. A guilty ruling could lead to party dissolution. Conversely, if the case is dismissed, a new crisis of trust may erupt, potentially destabilising the Anutin II administration.
Another looming challenge is the petition against ballot papers printed with barcodes and QR codes. Critics argue these markings compromise voter anonymity. Should the Constitutional Court rule that they violate the principle of secret balloting, all 500 MPs could be disqualified, forcing a new election.
Despite these odds, pundits believe Bhumjaithai will survive the wave of "lawfare" as long as the deep state continues to see the party as useful. For now, no alternative has emerged, allowing the coalition to march on -- provided it avoids major missteps. Yet confidence is risky. The DLA exam scandal remains a thorn, with reports of southern politicians implicated. Failure to prosecute the true culprits could prompt the deep state to seek a new governing partner.
Political analyst Thepthai Senpong, a former Democrat MP, notes that the deep state itself is divided: one faction receptive to former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, the other still hostile. A viral photo last week of Thaksin with Yingluck and Paetongtarn Shinawatra meeting Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta was widely seen as a signal that Thaksin remains a viable option.
As long as the anti‑Thaksin faction holds sway, Bhumjaithai's future is secure -- at least for now. Analysts expect the coalition to remain intact until year's end, with no clear contenders for prime minister. Rumors of a successor whose name begins with "S" appear to be little more than a deep‑state trial balloon.
Thai politics, after all, resembles a theatre where the director controls the script. New actors are always waiting in the wings, ready to replace the current cast when the time is right.
