The draw for the Champions League always evokes mixed emotions. On the one hand, this is the start for the big clubs of the competition that, in its later stages, produces the best football that has ever been played. But on the other, the group stage can be a slog, the disparity between the rich and the less well-off so stark, the qualifiers so predictable, that the pre-Christmas fixtures can feel like an exercise less in elite sport than in filling the TV schedules and making money.
This season, though, is a little different, in that the six games of the group stage will be compressed into a nine-week spell (which itself is interrupted by an international break) to be completed before the World Cup. There is no time for teams that get off to a bad start to reset. An injury that might have kept a player out for two games could keep him out for four. Fatigue may become a factor. There are more unknowns in this group stage than there have been in a long time—although the underlying sense of more and more games that mean less and less remains.
Where, then, may the shocks occur? Which elite clubs could be in danger of missing out on the last 16? Here’s an assessment of the eight groups determined by Thursday’s draw, along with our picks to reach the knockout rounds:
