I asked what the backwardation in crude oil futures was telling us in a May 19, 2026, Barchart article, concluding with the following:
The bottom line is that we should expect lots of volatility in crude oil prices over the coming weeks and months. While the short-term path of least resistance is uncertain, with the potential for a spike or a plunge, the forward curve suggests crude oil prices are most likely to fall over the long term.
Crude oil could reach a new high, but that would only encourage increased production and alternative logistical routes to the Strait of Hormuz and other passages impacted by Iran and its proxies.
