The Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) programme of the Indian Air Force (IAF) earned the sobriquet of being the ‘mother of all procurements’ due its cost, pegged at around $10 billion in 2007. A decade later, the purchase of 36 Rafale jets was of limited value because the requirement was for 126 aircraft. Consequently, many IAF chiefs have spoken of the depleting squadron strength in the IAF, which is now an abysmal 32. It would take another 10 years before it reaches 35 squadrons, as stated by the current IAF chief. The Indian Army and the Indian Navy fare no better either with the media reporting major deficiencies with them too. With India in election mode and sops being showered on the electorate (even more certain before the general election in 2024), the allocation for defence in Budget 2024-25, which starts getting planned now, could take a hit. This could impact India’s deterrence posture, which defence preparedness is all about.
Need for judicious assessment
The question is whether ‘affordable defence’ — due to the perennial guns versus butter dilemma — will be the driving factor. Or, will ‘affordable effectiveness’ drive the defence Budget allocation? This is best illustrated by the IAF going in for 97 more Tejas Mk1A fighters to overcome the deficit in squadron strength, though this was to be achieved by the 114 multi role fighter aircraft project that the IAF has been pushing for. So, to rephrase the question, should Budget (allocation) be allowed to determine defence potency (remember General V.P. Malik’s quip during the Kargil conflict: “We will fight with what we have”)? Or, should the required potency drive allocations for defence?
