LEADING polling expert John Curtice has warned Andy Burnham that calling an early general election in a bid to extend his time as Prime Minister would be unwise and could open the door to Reform UK.
Although Labour has seen an uptick in support since Burnham took over as Prime Minister from Keir Starmer in July, Curtice highlighted that the party has still lost a significant amount of support overall since it took power in 2024.
Curtice has warned the Prime Minister that calling an early election could open the door to Number 10 Downing Street for Reform UK after Labour's support plummeted under Starmer.
A YouGov poll carried out earlier this week showed a tight race with Reform UK and Labour both on 23% of the vote and the Conservatives on 20%.
Despite Nigel Farage’s party gaining support in the last 12 months, Reform have been dogged by scandal over its finances, which includes an investigation by the Metropolitan Police.
Reform support has slumped considerably in recent months after the party peaked with a nine-point lead over Labour a year ago.
However, despite Reform’s dwindling support, Curtice, who is a politics professor at the University of Strathclyde, has warned Burnham that calling an early election to boost his time in Number 10 would be a mistake due to Labour’s support still suffering after Starmer’s premiership.
“At the moment, the polls are saying that the Labour Party would lose its majority and that indeed one of the two post-Burnham bounce mega-poll MRPs actually has Reform with more seats than Labour,” he told The Independent.
“One of the things you have to remember is this – and this is something that people have not picked up – the decline in Labour support since 2024, according to more than one mega-poll I've looked at, has occurred disproportionately in seats that Labour won in 2024.
“If you look at the pattern of the decline in Labour support in the local elections, it was heaviest in places where they were previously strongest.
“That, of course, is what happened to the Conservative Party in 2024 and why they ended up with only (about) 120 seats” (down from 365 in 2019).
“It’s that pattern that makes it possible for Reform, even if they're not terribly far ahead of Labour, to still do perfectly well in terms of seats.”
They could be the largest party, he added, because their vote is “geographically evenly spread,” which was a “big disadvantage in 2024 when they were coming third, but is not necessarily a disadvantage if they are coming first, even if only narrowly first”.
“So the numbers are not there and you're going to sacrifice an awful lot of your MPs.”
Curitce also said that Labour MPs had embraced Burnham as their new leader this summer “in the belief that he would succeed in enabling them to continue their parliamentary careers”.
He added: “He's been dying to do it for years. Holding an election now means risking three years to gain two. It's a bad deal.”
