April is officially in the books. We’re still comfortably in the early days of the 2025 season, but the sample size is big enough that we can start to glean at least some meaning from the information we’ve gathered so far. No, they don’t give out awards for strong first months, and nobody will hang banners for being in first place on May 1. But it would be foolish to dismiss all that’s happened to this point with a pithy, “It’s early.”
Consider the Baltimore Orioles, for example, who opened the year with a roughly 50% chance at making the postseason, per FanGraphs. A 12–18 start has seen those odds plummet to 16.5%. Does that subpar 30-game stretch doom the O’s, winners of 192 games over the past two seasons? Of course not, but it does alter a forecast that was much rosier a few weeks ago.
