Defending cup holders Paris Saint-Germain and Premier League leaders Arsenal punched their tickets to the 2026 Champions League final, but only one will leave Budapest with the European crown.
The Gunners came into the second leg of their semifinal tie with Atlético Madrid hoping to make their first Champions League final since 2006. A goal from Bukayo Saka was the difference-maker at the Emirates Stadium, propelling Arsenal to a 1–0 victory on the night to eliminate Los Colchoneros 2–1 on aggregate.
Then, 24 hours later, PSG locked horns with Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena. The clash lacked the frenetic goalscoring of the first leg, but Luis Enrique’s men showed their class and poise, securing a 1–1 draw away from home to advance to their second consecutive Champions League final 6–5 on aggregate.
Now that the stage is set for Europe’s showpiece event, here’s how the Opta supercomputer rates each finalist’s chance of claiming Champions League glory.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner
| Team | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 55.76% |
| PSG | 44.24% |
Opta is seemingly unmoved by PSG’s European pedigree and lethal attack; it backs Arsenal to win their maiden Champions League title come May 30.
The supercomputer gives Mikel Arteta’s side a 55.76% chance of coming out on top in Budapest. Should the Gunners indeed upend the Parisians in a few weeks, they will have put together an unbeaten run in Europe’s premier club competition.
Say what you will about their dull style of play, set-piece reliance or lack of flair up top, but Arsenal’s defense is second to none—and Opta clearly has faith in the backline led by Gabriel and William Saliba to carry the north London club to a historic prize.
After scoring a record 44 goals in the Champions League this season, PSG will undoubtedly be the public’s favorite to get past what many deem an underwhelming Arsenal side. Yet Opta has them ending their incredible run with a runners-up finish.
The defending cup holders are given a 44.24% chance of successfully retaining the European crown, a feat only previously accomplished by Real Madrid in the Champions League era. History and the supercomputer’s odds are not in PSG’s favor, but Enrique’s team won’t care.
After all, they were largely written off last season after bidding farewell to Kylian Mbappé and then mustering a poor league phase campaign—yet went on to hoist a first-ever Champions League trophy. PSG once again found themselves forced to compete in the knockout phase playoffs in 2025–26, but they are back in the final, looking to etch their names in the competition’s history books.
READ THE LATEST CHAMPIONS LEAGUE NEWS, ANALYSIS AND INSIGHT FROM SI FC
- Four Takeaways as Reigning Monarchs PSG Vanquish Bayern, Return to Champions League Final
- Bayern Munich vs. PSG Player Ratings: Titleholders Book Champions League Final Berth
- 2025–26 Champions League Final Confirmed—One Match to Decide European Title
- 2025–26 Champions League Final: Dates, Format, Teams
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner After Decisive Semifinal Second Legs.
