The past three years, Big Tech and Wall Street have financed the artificial intelligence boom on a simple premise: build the infrastructure now, and a historic wave of corporate productivity will soon pay the tab. Within 48 hours, two of the market’s most closely watched economists, both at firms financing that buildout, challenged the premise, publishing back-to-back warnings that AI spending is outpacing its economic payoff. Neither doubts where AI is headed, only how quickly the rest of the economy will get there.
At Goldman Sachs, chief economist Jan Hatzius estimates that the growth impulse from the AI buildout will peak in late 2026 or early 2027. An expansion meant to hand off smoothly from historic capital spending to economy-wide productivity gains is instead hitting an air pocket. The initial spending surge is climbing but losing steam as AI capex growth as a share of GDP slows, the boost from last year’s tax depreciation incentives fades, and the stock-market wealth effect cools. Goldman still believes in the long-term payoff, but getting there requires wading through near-term labor-market disruption that will weigh on growth before lifting it.
