Two cheers for divided government? It's Election Day, and all signs point to victory for Democrats. Nate Silver's FLIPR model, which blends polling with fundamentals, gives Democrats an 82.4 percent chance of winning the Senate and a 96.4 percent chance of winning control of the House. Both Kalshi and Polymarket show Democrats as strong favorites to win both chambers of Congress.
It's always possible that polls, prediction markets, and other models are wrong. In recent years, pollsters have had trouble reaching the white, rural voters who now form the core of the Republican Party base. But the Democratic advantage in the polls has been growing in recent days. And as Silver notes, even if the polls overestimate Democratic strength by a few points, their lead is so large that they could still win. The blue wave (probably) cometh.
