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RARE PHOTOS: Nate silver - The Real Truth

Prediction markets' reputation comes back to earth after surprise result in Wisconsin

Kalshi and Polymarket gave Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning on the eve of the primary, before David Crowley’s upset.

Fortune

Pollsters Do Their Autopsy

Plus: Eggs on ice, Chicago's teachers unions, and more...

Reason

Trump’s net approval is near record low, with Democrats favoured to gain control of Congress at midterms

Since the Iran war resumed, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped back, and he’s now at a near record low below -20, putting him below other past presidents at this point in their terms.

The Conversation

From analysis to the latest developments in health,
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Donald Trump’s dilemma: Ending the Iran war to appease Americans will anger his evangelical base

The American war on Iran has quickly become one of the most unpopular wars in United States history. At the beginning of March 2026, when the war started, 46 per cent of Americans opposed the conflict, according to pollster Nate Silver’s aggregator of polling data. Now that number has risen…

The Conversation

The Socialist Surge Revives Failed and Hateful Ideas

Socialism, totalitarianism, and bigotry find a receptive audience among the young and disillusioned.

Reason

Progressive Michigan

Plus: Youth leftist organizer wins in Michigan, Mamdani vs. business, George R.R. Martin struggles to finish Game of Thrones, and more...

Reason

Trump’s support among Republicans falls to its lowest mark on record, poll reveals

The Trump administration continues to struggle with an unpopular war in Iran and stubborn inflation eroding Americans’ purchasing power

The Independent UK

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Why Nate Silver thinks Americans are starting to tune out Donald Trump

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The Independent UK

America is already ‘moving on’ from Trump as central figure in US politics, Nate Silver claims

News coverage of President Donald Trump’s second term has largely focused on blunders and missteps, suggesting a loss of interest in taking him seriously and a willingness to shift focus, pollster argues

The Independent UK

What to expect when you’re not expecting a clear Senate winner

ANALYSIS — Twenty months down and less than four months to go, you’d think there would be more clarity in the fight for the Senate. But Republicans only have a narrow advantage and, if history is a guide, control of the chamber will likely remain up for grabs all the…

Roll Call

Trump baselessly claims he has a 59 percent approval rating despite no poll backing up his claim

The 80-year-old leader also claimed prices were ‘coming down,’ even though government inflation numbers show otherwise

The Independent UK

Labor gains in three further polls; Trump’s ratings recover slightly

Three further federal polls have been released since Monday’s article, for a total of five polls since Sunday.

The Conversation

"Why Can't California Count?"

Eli McKown-Dawson (Silver Bulletin) writes (introduced by Nate Silver): California is notoriously slow at counting its ballots. In 2024, it… The post "Why Can't California Count?" appeared first on Reason.com.

Reason

Spain and France headline the 2026 World Cup race as England and Argentina complete the favorites' quartet

The 2026 World Cup begins on June 11 with the tightest field at the top in recent memory. Three independent sources —the betting markets, artificial intelligence and FIFA's official ladder— paint, for the first time in years, the same map of power. And on that map, four flags share almost…

Latin Times

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International Business Times

Most Americans Don't Believe Trump Has a Plan To End The War In Iran, Poll Shows

A new poll shows that most Americans don't believe that President Trump has a plan for the Iran war or that he will achieve his goals.

The Conversation

Trump’s ratings slide further, but gerrymanders will help Republicans at midterm elections

US President Donald Trump’s ratings have slid further to a new record low. But two recent court decisions will assist Republicans in using gerrymandering to avoid losing their majority in the House of Representatives.

The Conversation

Trump’s US ratings are near a record low after dropping further last week

US President Donald Trump’s net approval is near a record low after a further dip, despite a surging US stock market. In Australia, there are federal Essential and Morgan polls and a Queensland Resolve poll.

The Guardian - UK

Polymarket in fundraising talks that could value the prediction platform at $15bn

Bets placed on Middle East conflict has led to US firm experiencing big increase in volume

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International Business Times UK

Democrats Surge to 61% Chance of Winning 2028 Election as Early Forecast Signals Major Political Shift

Prediction markets indicate a Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, driven by Trump's low approval ratings and midterm election trends favoring Democrats.

International Business Times UK

'The Magic Is Gone': Trump Got 'USA' Chants at UFC in 2025 — Last Night the Same Miami Crowd Barely Clapped

Donald Trump is met with boos at a UFC event in Miami that critics say reflects slipping approval ratings and a shifting mood even among his usual supporters.

The Guardian - UK

‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

The Conversation

Donald Trump’s US ratings fall to a record low amid Iran war

United States President Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen to a record low on the Iran war, while Democrats had a 25-point swing in their favour in a federal special election. On current polling, Democrats are likely to win the US House but not the Senate at midterm elections this…

Reason

Sex Educators Say They're Being Harmed by Age Verification Laws

Plus: Wisconsin governor vetoes porn age-check bill, more charges for penis protester, the Komodo dragon theory of social media, and more...

Latin Times

New Trump Economy Poll 2026: Majority of Americans Say Economy Worse Than Under Biden

A majority of Americans believe the U.S. economy has deteriorated under President Donald Trump, according to a new national poll that signals growing economic anxiety ahead of key political battles.

International Business Times

Trump Approval Ratings Shows He Has 'Profound Problems,' Top Pollster Warns

President Trump is hitting historic lows in polling, likely driven by the Iran war and high gas prices.

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