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DARK SECRETS: Markov | Vintage Vibes

Options Activity Shows Avis Budget (CAR) Could Be Cooking Up a Positive Earnings Surprise

Both unusual options activity and volatility skew suggest that a move higher for CAR stock is a non-trivial possibility.

The Saturday Spread: Reducing Uncertainty in an Uncertain World (AMZN, CHWY, EXPE)

The Saturday Spread: Reducing Uncertainty in an Uncertain World (AMZN, CHWY, EXPE)

Fundamentally, a truly valuable financial analysis must spark a posterior belief change relative to the prior — and that’s exactly what we have with the Markov property.

Why the Smart Money is Pensive Ahead of Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) Q4 Earnings Report

Why the Smart Money is Pensive Ahead of Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) Q4 Earnings Report

While the most sophisticated market participants aren’t necessarily prescient, their volatility skew for XOM stock deserves careful consideration.

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Volatility Skew is Sending a Very Clear Message About Newmont’s (NEM) Golden Rally

With gold and silver soaring on blistering demand, it’s tempting to jump aboard with NEM stock. Here’s what you need to know before taking the plunge.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is Flashing an Intriguing Quant Setup Ahead of Q4 Earnings

While SOFI stock has started 2026 rather inauspiciously, a potential signal in the charts suggests that its fortunes may change favorably.

The Saturday Spread: Using Inductive Reasoning to Identify Options Trading Opportunities

While no one can predict the future, we can leverage the concept of empirical regularity to make more informed trading decisions.

Why Cloudflare (NET) Stock Options Could Be Due for a Comeback Trade

Although Cloudflare has struggled amid broader questions impacting the tech ecosystem, NET stock may surprisingly benefit from a reflexive swing higher.

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The Saturday Spread: Using the Markov Property to Find Mispriced Opportunities (PANW, NTES, DKS)

The Saturday Spread: Using the Markov Property to Find Mispriced Opportunities (PANW, NTES, DKS)

Every day, pricing for options is mathematically bound to be suboptimal. Here’s how to find the ones that are priced in our favor.

Why Unity Software (U) Stock Could Be Due for a Big Earnings Surprise

Why Unity Software (U) Stock Could Be Due for a Big Earnings Surprise

With the gaming software specialist set to release earnings next month, the options market appears to be pointing to an outsized performance for U stock.

If You Missed the Boat, Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Options Are Giving You Another Ticket

If You Missed the Boat, Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Options Are Giving You Another Ticket

Although Nvidia has struggled due to AI bubble fears, NVDA stock managed to pop higher following a Buy signal. Fortunately, another opportunity may be on the horizon.

Vladimir Putin's 'dilemma' over US-Ukraine ceasefire plan amid 'trap' fears but Russians wanting end to war

Vladimir Putin's 'dilemma' over US-Ukraine ceasefire plan amid 'trap' fears but Russians wanting end to war

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky agreed the ceasefire plan despite their bust-up in the Oval Office

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