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HISTORICAL FACTS: 8 - Caught on Camera

Labor maintains election-winning leads in Newspoll and Ipsos, as opposition to unveil Pacific initiatives

Labor has maintained unchanged its solid two-party leads in both Newspoll and the Australian Financial Review’s Ipsos poll.

The Conversation

Explainer: how to read political polls - and why we can expect a lot of drama on election night

The single most important measure in Australian election polls is the two-party preferred vote (2PP). It captures the two central characteristics of Australian House of Representatives elections: that it is a preferential voting system, in which the flow of preferences can be crucial in determining who wins a seat; and…

The Conversation

Labor still has clear lead in Newspoll and Resolve, but Albanese’s ratings slump

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 14-17 from a sample of 1,510, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 36% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (up two), 4% One Nation (up one), 4% UAP (steady) and 9% for all Others (down one).

The Conversation

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View from The Hill: Labor holds 53-47% lead but Albanese takes a hit in Newspoll

Labor has clung to its 53-47% two-party lead in the latest Newspoll, but Anthony Albanese’s ratings have taken a knock after his error-prone first week of the campaign.

The Conversation

Forget the election gaffes: Australia's unemployment rate of 4% is good news – and set to get even better by polling day

When Labor leader Anthony Albanese couldn’t say whether the unemployment rate was 5% or 4% on Monday, he might have had a point.

The Conversation

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 6-9 from a sample of 1,506, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (steady), 10% Greens (steady), 4% UAP (up one), 3% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all…

The Conversation

Where are the most marginal seats, and who might win them?

The map below shows the 2019 federal election results adjusted for redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia. Victoria gained a seat (Hawke), while WA lost one (Stirling). Hawke is a notional Labor seat, while Stirling was a Liberal seat, so Labor gained one notional seat by redistribution.

The Conversation

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Newspoll puts Morrison ahead of Albanese

The latest Newspoll shows Scott Morrison has pulled ahead of Anthony Albanese as the preferred prime minister.

AAP

As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called the federal election for May 21. What do the polls say, and how do we know if they are accurate?

The Conversation

Gains for Labor in three post-budget polls, as budget has weak response compared with historical record

The polls presented here are in addition to Monday’s Newspoll (54-46 to Labor) and Ipsos (55-45 to Labor), which I covered here.

The Conversation

Final Opinion Polls Before Election Show This Is Going To Be Too Fkn Close And I Cannot Look

The first opinion polls of the federal election campaign are here and they show Labor's lead over the Coalition has slipped again slightly.

Pedestrian.tv

Coalition and Greens gain in post-budget Newspoll as an Ipsos poll gives Labor a large lead

This week’s Newspoll, conducted March 31 to April 3 – the days following the March 29 budget –from a sample of 1,531, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago.

The Conversation

Labor ahead 54-46% in post-budget Newspoll, as Morrison rejects claims of racist tactics in his preselection fight

Labor’s two-party lead has been cut back slightly, to 54-46%, and its primary vote has fallen in the post-budget Newspoll. But Anthony Albanese would have a strong win if the latest poll were reproduced at the election.

The Conversation

Labor still election favourites: Newspoll

The latest Newspoll shows voters back Labor to win the federal election.

AAP

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The Conversation

Mixed results for Labor in nine federal seat polls, but a national Morgan poll gives Labor a massive lead

Telereach conducted nine polls in federal seats from March 17-19 for the News Ltd tabloids. All seats had a sample of about 800 according to Kos Samaras. The seats polled were Coalition-held Bass (Tas), Boothby (SA), Chisholm (Vic), Flynn (Qld), Reid (NSW), Swan (WA) and Longman (Qld), and Labor-held Dunkley…

The Conversation

Labor landslide likely in South Australian election, but Labor-Greens unlikely to control upper house

The South Australian election is on Saturday, with polls closing at 6:30pm AEDT. A YouGov poll for The Advertiser, conducted March 7-13 from a sample of 835, gave Labor a 56-44 lead, compared with the 2018 election result of 51.9-48.1 to Liberal, so this poll would be about an 8%…

The Conversation

Albanese level with Morrison as better PM in Newspoll as Labor maintains big lead

This week’s Newspoll, conducted March 9-12 from a sample of 1,520, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged since last fortnight. Primary votes were 41% Labor (steady), 35% Coalition (steady), 8% Greens (down one), 3% One Nation (steady), 3% Clive Palmer’s UAP (down one) and 10% for all Others (up two).

The Conversation

Anthony Albanese now level with Scott Morrison as 'better PM': Newspoll

Anthony Albanese is now level with Scott Morrison as “better prime minister” for the first time in more than two years in Newspoll, as Labor retains its 55-45% two-party lead.

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The Conversation

Labor maintains big federal Newspoll lead and is likely to win in South Australia

This week’s Newspoll gives Labor a 55-45 lead over the Coalition, which is unchanged since the previous poll a fortnight ago.

The Conversation

Morrison's ratings slump in Resolve and Essential polls; Liberals set to retain Willoughby

A Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 15-20 from a sample of 1,604, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since January), the Coalition 33% (down one), the Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 3% (steady), independents 10% (down one) and others 9% (up three).

The Conversation

A bad Newspoll for the Greens; Willoughby NSW byelection could be close

This week’s Newspoll, conducted February 9-12 from a sample of 1,526, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the late January Newspoll. Primary votes were 41% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (steady), 8% Greens (down three), 3% One Nation (steady) and 14% for all Others (up…

The Conversation

NSW byelections preview; federal Coalition rebounds in Essential poll

Four state byelections will occur in NSW on Saturday, with polls closing at 6pm AEDT.

Pedestrian.tv

First 2022 Newspoll Shows Coalition Is Way Behind So Here’s A Lowlights Reel Of Why That May Be

Why indeed!

Pedestrian.tv

Introducing The Australian’s Fully Accurate Not At All Flawed Pie Chart About The Preferred PM

Newspoll, The Australian‘s own opinion poll that tracks how voters are feeling about major parties and politicians, is copping a heap of online flack after publishing a rather questionable pie graph. And yes the pie graph is dumb enough to write an entire article about, because aside from being shittily…

The Conversation

Newspoll has Labor's biggest lead since Turnbull's ousting as Coalition damaged by COVID

In the first Newspoll of 2022, Labor led by 56-44, a three-point gain since the previous Newspoll in early December. Primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 34% Coalition (down two), 11% Greens (up one), 3% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (down two).

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