I don’t like tight ends—O.K., fine, I’ll explain. I’m only speaking about how the position relates to fantasy. It’s nothing personal, of course.
It boils down to there being a few elite tier players and beyond that, it’s the wild west. Yes, tight ends emerge and bust every year. I suppose every position does, but the blowups seem to be more severe. However, I believe the juice is rarely worth the squeeze. When discussing wide receiver sleepers Wednesday, I highlighted the strengths to WR scoring that make it more robust, more reliable than running back scoring. Well, even RB scoring is more reliable than tight ends.
Last year’s TE1, Mark Andrews, scored 301.1 fantasy points. The TE12, Noah Fant, scored about half that, 159.0 points. This was also true in 2020 (TE1 Travis Kelce 312.8 points, 20.9 ppg vs. TE12 Hunter Henry 145.3 points, 10.4 ppg) and 2019 (TE1 Kelce 254.3 points, 15.9 ppg vs. TE12 Mike Gesicki 136.0 points, 8.5 ppg). You get the idea.
So with this information in mind, I approach the position as such:
In TE-premium leagues, I’ll reach for first tier tight ends like Kelce, Andrews, George Kittle and Kyle Pitts. If I miss on them, I will overdraft the position in Round 6 and beyond, take as many as three total and hope to get lucky that one of them has a big year.
In redraft leagues, I will draft a first-tier TE if they fall to me. This year, that means Kelce (~2.01), Andrews (~2.07), Pitts (~3.10) and Kittle (~3.12). If I miss them? Again, I will overdraft the position in Round 10 and beyond, take as many as three total and hope to get lucky that one of them has a big year.
Since most tight ends don’t see volume targets, excluding the elite options, their fantasy point totals are even more reliant on touchdowns compared to other positions. Without that steady diet of receptions and yards, there's no scoring consistency. Touchdowns are notoriously fickle, especially when we’re talking about the average TE being the third- or fourth-best playmaker in their team’s offense.
We can do a deep analytical dive on a particular tight end's red zone snaps and targets every week, teams with quarterbacks that rarely run for touchdowns, teams lacking a tall, big-bodied receiver to go up for jump balls in the end zone—and so on—all in an attempt to zero-in on our best TE options. But all we’d be doing is divining an opinion derived from which way the wind blows. It’s the illusion of choice. The position is inherently illogical! A pox on it!
