Your vote probably doesn't matter: "The titanic Biden-Trump election likely will be decided by roughly 6% of voters in just six states," reports Axios. The truly contested states in 2024 will probably be Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—same as the 2020 battlegrounds—with a possibly contested seventh state, North Carolina. And, within those six states, both campaigns are calculating that it's really only about 6 percent of voters who are truly fence-sitters.
New April polling "found [President Joe] Biden is ahead in just one of the seven states most likely to determine the outcome of his matchup with [former President] Donald Trump, leading Michigan by 2 percentage points," reports Bloomberg. "Biden trails the presumptive GOP nominee slightly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and his deficit in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina is larger." Political analysts believe that some of this is due to dismal views of the economy, which voters are more likely to pin on Biden. (For better or worse, people frequently blame economic woes on the sitting president. In Biden's case, given the massive COVID-era spending—which Trump also had a hand in—which massively spiked inflation, it arguably makes a bit more sense.)
