There are few in the Democratic Party in the United States at this point in time who are looking at whether or not the U.S. President, Joseph Biden, will run for re-election in 2024. Instead, all eyes and minds are on the U.S. midterm elections on November 8. The general perception is that Mr. Biden and the Democrats are going to lose more than just their shirts and heading into a situation where the next two years of his tenure will be a lame duck one, with little to no movement on the legislative agenda, especially if the Senate also falls to the Grand Old Party. Almost every one of the polls and pundits have written off the House of Representatives.
An argument that might hold
With minor exceptions, the traditional argument has always been that the President’s Party loses the midterm elections; statistics show that since the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s elections in 1932, this has always been the case. The party of the President has lost House seats in 19 out of 22 midterm polls; and 15 out 22 in the Senate. In 2022, a total of 469 seats are in the reckoning — 435 in the House and 34 in the Senate (14 held by Democrats and 20 by the Grand Old Party). And in November, there are five Republican incumbents not seeking re-election. All eyes are on the Senate where the two parties are tied at 50, with the Republicans looking to gain only one seat to take control of the Chamber.
