In the moment, it is very difficult to know what Supreme Court decisions are actually important. Perhaps Trump v. Anderson is a leading example. For nearly a year, the scholarly community completely lined up with the argument that the judiciary should invoke a 150-year old clause that has virtually zero precedent to disqualify the leading candidate from the presidential ballot, even though no one was even charged with insurrection. Now, other than a few grousing law review articles, Section 3 has receded from whence it came. Or take Trump v. United States. When it was decided, we were warned that this decision would usher in despotism. Barely two years later, the decision is largely irrelevant. Indeed, due to an unusual set of circumstances, all of the prosecutions against Trump have petered out. I would add Slaughter to that same list. Without question, it was momentous for the Court to allow Trump to fire an FTC commissioner, all but signaling that Humphrey's Executor is dead. But how much will this case actually affect most people? Does the average American even know what the FTC is?
I think Abbott v. LULAC is different. This case might be the most impactful emergency docket ruling yet. Consider the dynamics. Both parties have now committed to mid-decade redistricting. As Justice Kagan observed, "overtly partisan redistricting (in both red and blue States) became de rigueur." The control of the House of Representatives will be decided on a knife's edge. If California could have gerrymandered Republican seats out of existence, but Texas was unable to gerrymander Democrats seats, then there would have been a clear asymmetry. It is difficult to say with any certainty how much of an effect this asymmetry would have. In recent years, the incumbent President's party tends to lose seats in the House. But I think it safe to assume that if California could redistrict, but Texas could not, the Republicans wold have slim odds of keeping the House.
What follows from that outcome is fairly predictable. We would see impeachments: Secretary of Defense (War) Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Judge Emil Bove, and more. They might try to impeach Trump again over whatever the issue of the day happens to be. The details are not important. If the Senate remains in Republican control, they can follow the Mayorkas precedent, and dismiss all of the indictments on the briefs, without holding a trial. But if the Democrats take the Senate, Chief Justice Roberts would have some more presiding to do.
