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Salon
Salon
Science
Émile P. Torres

DARK SECRETS: Ai apocalypse or utopia probably not | Vintage Vibes

Since the release of ChatGPT last November, apocalyptic warnings that AGI, or artificial general intelligence, could destroy humanity have been all over the news. "AI poses 'risk of extinction,'" says "leaders from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and other AI labs," the New York Times reported last May. The previous month, TIME magazine published an article by the leading "AI doomer," Eliezer Yudkowsky, who declared that "the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die." Similarly, an AI researcher named Connor Leahy told Christiane Amanpour in an interview for CNN that the prospect of AGI killing off the entire human population was "quite likely."

At the very same time, the prospect of "God-like AI" has also inspired a flurry of utopian proclamations. Tech billionaire Marc Andreessen claims that advanced AI will radically accelerate economic growth and job creation, leading to "heightened material prosperity across the planet." It will also enable us to "profoundly augment human intelligence," cure all diseases and build an interstellar civilization. The CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, echoes these promises, arguing that AGI will make space colonization possible, create "unlimited intelligence and energy" and ultimately produce "a world in which humanity flourishes to a degree that is probably impossible for any of us to fully visualize yet."

All of this might seem unprecedented. There are so many dire warnings of imminent extinction in the news right now, sometimes paired with equally wild predictions that a new era of radical abundance lies just around the corner. Surely something big is happening. Yet this isn't the first time that notable scientists and self-described "experts" have announced to the public that we're on the cusp of creating a magical new technology that will either annihilate humanity or usher in a utopian world of unfathomable wonders. We've been here before, and what happened? In every case, the outcome was much less sensational than people were led to believe. Often, the hype turned out to be a giant nothingburger.

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