Despite a nearly 48% increase in the number of people returning to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday compared to the same period last year, a contraction in movie box office sales and tourism revenues — due perhaps to the worsening economy — suggests that this did not result in materially higher consumption demand. Property sales, heavy truck sales and operating rates of some key manufacturing sectors deteriorated further in January.
Despite Beijing’s call to front-load supportive measures at the start of this year, we believe GDP growth could slow further in the first quarter.
