While television executives optimistically expect advertising revenue to rebound in the second half of the year, MoffettNathanson senior research analyst Michael Nathanson, looking at the economic outlook and the scatter market, is questioning the industry’s conventional wisdom and popping its balloons.
Instead of a rebound, Nathanson sees the industry facing a tough upfront and, in a new research note forecasts that 2023 TV advertising spending will be down 5% to $78.7 billion, compared to his earlier forecast of a 3.3% decline. That includes a 22.5% increase in ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) revenue to $11.4 billion. (His earlier forecast had AVOD growing 27%.)
