Over the past several weeks, Axios has repeatedly reported that a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran was either “close,” “imminent” or nearing completion. On Wednesday, a little over an hour before Axios reporter Barak Ravid published a scoop claiming the White House believed it was close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the war, nearly 10,000 crude oil contracts — worth approximately $920 million in notional value — were sold on the futures market by traders betting the price of oil was about to fall. According to data highlighted by trading surveillance accounts like The Kobeissi Letter, whoever placed those bets stood to make an estimated $125 million as oil prices collapsed more than 12%.
Then the reality of the war hit. Iran called the whole thing “the Americans’ wish list,” Donald Trump told the New York Post it was “too soon” to prepare for peace, Israel said it hadn’t even been informed of the proposal and oil bounced back 8% as traders realized the “imminent deal” might not exist at all. Even Fox News host Mark Levin, the war’s biggest media booster, wrote that he had concluded the Axios report was “largely fake.” A senior Iranian parliament member said Axios was being used by the White House for market manipulation.
