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Fortune
Fortune
Eva Roytburg

FORGOTTEN HISTORY: Boom or bust the case for and against panicking about 5 yields - The Untold Story

A trader looks on as US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is displayed on a television screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on September 16, 2026. (Credit: TIMOTHY A. CLARY—AFP/Getty Images)

The most important number in the economy has hit its highest level since 2007, and Wall Street can’t decide if this is good or bad.

That number is the 10-year Treasury yield, the interest rate that the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade and on which almost every other loan in the country is predicated. It hit 5.21% on Friday, and the average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.45% alongside it; car loans, credit cards, and business loans will follow.

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