July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) on Tuesday closed up +213 (+5.47%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) closed up +163 (+5.50%). Cocoa prices surged on Tuesday amid mounting weather concerns. The formation of an El Niño weather pattern could lead to warmer, drier conditions in West Africa, potentially damaging cocoa production there. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between now and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67% chance of a "Super El Niño."
Cocoa prices also have support from early surveys of the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in October.
