In justifying his invasion into Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently pointed to one culprit as the main driver for the crisis: NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe and its military cooperation with Ukraine, including providing billions of dollars in training and equipment.
Whether Moscow’s perception of insecurity is caused by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s growing reach or whether that’s merely pretext for Putin’s neo-imperialist mission to reclaim parts of the former Soviet Union is subject to debate. And there are few tools to assess Putin’s motivation.
Still, some have argued that Putin has a point. As the Biden administration and allies impose economic sanctions to respond to Russian troop movement into Ukraine, NATO’s role in the conflict is in question. NATO has courted Russia’s neighbors and some countries have joined the Euro-Atlantic alliance, while others such as Ukraine cling to the hope that they will follow suit. But it’s unclear if and when these countries will be allowed to do so. This limbo has left them vulnerable, for three reasons.