Until Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine last week, the standoff between Russia and a U.S.-led Western alliance had produced, on balance, a net strategic benefit for China. Now that Putin has pulled the trigger, the geopolitical game has completely changed.
The months of tension had distracted the U.S. from China, which Washington sees as its most formidable long-term threat. And looking ahead, Putin’s full tilt toward China, driven by his grievances against the West, would significantly improve Chinese security by expanding the country’s access to advanced weaponry and energy resources.
The optimal situation for China would have been prolonged tensions short of war, because such an ambiguous situation allowed China to avoid taking a firm stand while maintaining friendly ties with some of the key stakeholders — Russia, the European Union and also Ukraine, which had been a major supplier of grains to China.
