The excitement about DeepSeek is understandable, but a lot of the reactions I’m seeing feel quite a bit off-base. DeepSeek represents a significant efficiency gain in the large language model (LLM) space, which will have a major impact on the nature and economics of LLM applications. However, it does not signal a fundamental breakthrough in artificial general intelligence (AGI), nor a fundamental shift in the center of gravity of AI innovation. It’s a sudden leap along an expected trajectory rather than a disruptive paradigm shift.
DeepSeek’s impressive achievement mirrors the broader historical pattern of technological progression. In the early 1990s, high-end computer graphics rendering required supercomputers; now, it’s done on smartphones. Face recognition, once an expensive niche application, is now a commodity feature. The same principle applies to large language models (LLMs). The surprise isn’t the nature of the advance, it’s the speed.
