Over the last 10 years, markets ( Equities and Commodities in particular) have shown a strong tendency to ignore classic technical and fundamental analysis.
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Algorithms are theoretically based on technical factors like volatility and momentum, but the reality is they are driven by social media posts.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. With the war in Iran escalating, the test will be commodity markets that are rallying without the support of real fundamentals.
Toward the end of January, I gave a market talk at the annual meeting of a local soybean processing company in Omaha. I filled the hour with talk of the economic Law of Supply and Demand, the importance of intrinsic value, basis, and futures spreads – all of our reads on real supply and demand. I discussed my 7 Market Rules, and how if we put everything together, the US soybean situation was as bearish if not more so than a year ago at the same time. Earlier this week, one of the attendees at that meeting called with a simple message, “You were wrong”.
