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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
Business
Gene Marks

HISTORICAL FACTS: Do those so called us recession indicators actually mean anything - Caught on Camera

‘Economists and academics and pundits have been historically wrong too many times.’
‘Economists and academics and pundits have been historically wrong too many times.’ Photograph: blickwinkel/Alamy

As someone who keeps a close eye on the economy, I often bump into those strange metrics that people like to write about that, supposedly, unlock the secret of whether or not a recession is looming.

Given what’s going on, it’s no surprise that they are back again. Just last week Bloomberg reported a cut in spending at hair stylists. There’s the “lipstick index” – in tough economic times, women load up on lipstick instead of spending their dwindling funds on bigger-ticket items. Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan liked to follow men’s underwear sales because hey, when times are tough, we guys are not willing to buy new shorts.

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