The summer is here, meaning we’re getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn’t easy, however, especially in the case of players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point: In 2020, David Montgomery emerged into a fantasy superstar as the lead running back in Chicago. He finished fourth in fantasy points at the position while putting up career highs across the board. That success made him a surefire top-20 selection in most 2021 redrafts. Many fantasy folks trusted that Montgomery was so good in his breakout campaign that he'd be just as good the following year. Unfortunately, those who spent a high pick or auction bid on him found out differently.
Montgomery had a respectable season; it just wasn’t elite. His yards per carry average went from 4.3 to 3.8, and his fantasy points per game average dropped by almost three points. He would finish as the RB21, or a full 17 spots worse than his 2020 campaign.
View the original article to see embedded media.
The point here is that fantasy managers trusted Montgomery too much after he broke out. Of course, you were warned about him if you read my "Fantasy Case Against" article on the Chicago back heading into 2021. That leads me to continue the series, where I'll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land thinks are a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past years.
Next, let's look at the Commanders third-year running back Antonio Gibson.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf | Amari Cooper | A.J. Brown
