The summer is nearly here, meaning we're getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn't easy, especially for players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point. In 2020, Allen Robinson recorded 102 catches on 151 targets for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns. That was all good enough for him to finish ninth in fantasy points among wide receivers, and it was his second straight year in the top 10. As a result, fantasy managers felt good about drafting Robinson as a low-end No. 1 wideout in 2021 drafts. In fact, he had an ADP of 32.7, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
Unfortunately, the veteran wideout experienced a massive decline in his fantasy totals. In fact, his catches, yardage and touchdown numbers were his worst since his rookie season. Who knew he would miss Mitchell Trubisky so much or that the selection of rookie Justin Fields would be bad news for Robinson’s stock?
The point here is that few folks saw this coming because Robinson was so good in the two previous seasons. The proof, of course, is in his high-end ADP number. That leads me to this series, aptly named "The Fantasy Case Against…" where I'll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land thinks are a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's often unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
Next up, I'll look a Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf | Amari Cooper | A.J. Brown | Antonio Gibson | Patrick Mahomes | Mark Andrews
2021 season
Last season, Hill was a fantasy superstar, posting over 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns. That was good enough to finish sixth in fantasy points among wide receivers. He did experience a decline in his fantasy points per game average, dropping from 21.9 points (2020) to 17.4. Hill was also far less consistent on a week-to-week basis, as he failed to score 13 fantasy points in eight of his 16 full games played. On a positive note, when Hill was good, he was very good. He scored over 20 fantasy points seven times, including three games where he scored more than 30 fantasy points.
