A handful of recent polls in battleground seats confirms it will be a district-by-district fight for the House majority. But an even deeper look reveals more context about voters’ mood and the issues at the top of their minds.
Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to get to the necessary 218, although the path to majority is slightly wider for Republicans. The GOP needs to win four of the 15 seats rated as Toss-up by Inside Elections while Democrats need to win 12, as long as the other districts are won by the favored party.
While Republicans were poised to grow their House majority when President Joe Biden was slumping at the top of the Democratic ticket, Democrats have a chance with Kamala Harris as their nominee. A series of polls commissioned by Inside Elections in partnership with Noble Predictive Insights showed the vice president getting close to Biden’s 2020 performance against former President Donald Trump, which gives House Democrats a chance this November considering the general lack of ticket-splitting.
