After the torrential rains in July, August – usually the second rainiest of the four monsoon months – is likely to see ‘below normal’ rains, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. A strengthening El Nino and the absence of meteorological conditions that could have offset El Nino’s effects, will combine to suppress rainfall in the second half of the monsoon, IMD officials told The Hindu. Usually, August gets 25.49 cm of rainfall.
“The rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during second half of the monsoon season (August – September) is most likely to be normal (94-106% of the long period average (LPA)), with a tendency to be on negative side of the normal...The rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during August, 2023 is very likely to be below normal (<94% of LPA),” the IMD noted. LPA refers to a 50-year- average called the Long Period Average.
On June 30, the IMD forecast that July rainfall would be on the ‘positive side of normal’ or at the most, 6% of what is usual for the month. However a series of ‘Western Disturbances’ (rain accentuating systems from Central Asia) and active monsoon conditions saw July receive nearly 13% more rain than what is typical for the month. Rainfall was expected to be subdued in northwest and southern India in July but the IMD’s forecast was wrong, with the northwest getting 25% more rain and Southern India, 45% more rain, than normal. East and northeast India saw depressed rains with 32% less rain than what is normal.
