The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has kept its forecast of normal rainfall from June-September this year, unchanged from its prediction in April. At 96% of the Long Period Average (a 50-year mean) of 87 cm, this is at the lowest end of what is considered ‘normal.’ The chances of an El Nino forming are near certain, and this will likely mean that rainfall levels will be below normal in northwest India, the department said on May 26.
The key factor influencing the quantum of monsoon rains is the development of an El Nino, a cyclical phenomenon of warming in the central Pacific Ocean that is linked — in six out of ten years — to diminished rainfall in western and northwestern India, as well as the western parts of central India. Since 2019, India has been under the influence of the converse La Nina, which is a cooling in those regions, and therefore linked to substantial monsoon rains.
