The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently delivered a stern warning about the consequences that tariff increases could have on global economic growth. "It's a policy that is harming basically everyone," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the Financial Times. Given the burgeoning support for tariffs from both Democrats and Republicans, Gourinchas' prediction could spell trouble for Americans no matter who wins the election in November.
In its October World Economic Outlook report, the IMF predicts that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) could fall by "0.4 percent in 2025 and by 0.6 percent in 2026," if a "sizeable swath" of global trade is hit with tariffs by mid-2025. Under this scenario, global GDP would decline by 0.8 percent by 2025 and 1.3 percent by 2026.
