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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Richard Partington in Washington and Kiran Stacey

HISTORICAL FACTS: Iran war escalation could trigger global recession imf warns | History Defined

A man in military uniform stands as cars and motorcycles pass. The billboard in the background shows military personnel holding a net full of planes and ships
A member of the Iranian security forces watches over traffic passing a billboard reading ‘The strait of Hormuz will remain closed' in Enghelab Square in Tehran, Iran. Photograph: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

A further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession that would affect the UK more than any of the other G7 nations, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Against an increasingly volatile backdrop, the Washington-based fund said the economic damage from the Middle East conflict was steadily rising as it cut its growth forecasts for 2026 based on the impact of the war so far.

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