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Rich Asplund

MYSTERIOUS: Lower brazil coffee crop estimates underpin prices - What They Never Told You

Ice Brazil arabica Conab USDA Vietnam Rabobank Volcafe

July arabica coffee (KCN25) Wednesday closed up +0.95 (+0.24%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) closed up +71 (+1.34%).

Coffee prices on Wednesday settled moderately higher as they consolidated below Tuesday's highs.  On Tuesday, arabica coffee rose to a  2-1/2 month high, and robusta posted a 1-month high on concern about a smaller Brazilian coffee crop.  Last Tuesday, Rabobank predicted Brazil's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop would fall -13.6% y/y to 38.1 million bags, citing dry weather in key arabica-growing areas that significantly reduced flowering of coffee trees.  However, robusta coffee is under pressure after Rabobank predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 robusta coffee crop would climb +7.3% y/y to a record 24.7 million bags.

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