To see how Thailand is really doing, one needs to be outside the country. On a recent work trip to Hanoi, I found it inescapable that Thailand continues to fall behind even as its leaders pretend otherwise. Given the last two decades of political instability and prolonged economic doldrums, this trend is not surprising. Vietnam is moving ahead, while Thailand is beset by border and security issues left and right and is stuck internally, still trying to draft a new constitution amid declining economic growth.
Among Southeast Asian economies, Vietnam clearly has been the most impressive. Its economy is firing on all cylinders since I was last there a year ago. English proficiency is more widespread. Younger demographics appear energetic and enthusiastic, with an evident hunger for growth and development. In the think-tank space, Hanoi organised the third edition of the Asean Future Forum, which included in-person attendance by the government heads of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Timor-Leste, not to mention a United States deputy secretary of state and a United Nations undersecretary, while leaders of other Asian countries joined online.
Vietnam has a long-term plan to expand its economy aggressively to reach upper-middle-income status by 2030 and a high-income developed economy by 2045. If its economic growth continues at 7-10% per year, in just three years, Vietnam's economic size will surpass that of Thailand, which has been growing at 3% a year. In Hanoi at the AFF, Vietnamese leaders, from Prime Minister Le Minh Hung to President To Lam, joined the proceedings and related activities with visible confidence that their economy and society are on the right track despite external challenges faced by all countries.
