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Rich Asplund

MYSTERIOUS: Mounting weather concerns boost cocoa prices | Mind Blowing Facts

Ice Ivory Coast El Niño West Africa Ghana ICCO London StoneX

July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) today is up +216 (+5.55%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) is up +166 (+5.60%). Cocoa prices are surging today amid mounting weather concerns. The formation of an El Niño weather pattern could lead to warmer, drier conditions in West Africa, potentially damaging cocoa production there. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between now and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67% chance of a "Super El Niño."

Cocoa prices also have support from early surveys of the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop that show below average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in October.

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