Statistician Nate Silver recently released his first election model following Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. According to Silver's analysis on Substack, Harris is currently favored to win the popular vote but is considered a slight underdog to Trump in the Electoral College. This situation raises concerns about a potential repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that impacted the Democrats in the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Silver highlighted that Harris holds a more favorable position compared to President Biden when he was the incumbent challenger. He mentioned that Biden had a 27% chance of defeating Trump before withdrawing from the race. Harris swiftly garnered support from the Democratic Party in the two days following Biden's announcement of ending his 2024 re-election bid and endorsing his vice president.
