When Nate Silver says the election is "closer than a coin flip," he's basing it on hard numbers — heads empirically win 50.5 percent of the time, a greater margin than Vice President Kamala Harris' 50.15 percent chance of winning the superstar election handicapper's final forecast.
Harris won is slightly greater than 50 percent of the 80,000 times Silver ran electoral college simulations. Notably, that is twice as many simulations as he normally runs.
