On July 11 the Rays woke up to some harsh realities: Star shortstop Wander Franco was the latest addition to an already-crowded injured list, they had just been swept by the lowly Reds, and the Yankees were 15.5 games ahead of them in the American League East. That prompted one writer—who shall remain nameless—to write this story. Even after Tampa Bay won six of seven heading into the All-Star break, a sluggish end to July and start to August portended little hope that a turnaround was in the works.
As has been the case for the past four years, count the Rays out at your own peril.
Since Aug. 12—when Tampa Bay held a 58–53 record and a 41.9% chance at making the playoffs, per FanGraphs—the Rays have been the American League’s hottest team, winning 17 of their last 22 games to shrink New York’s division lead to just 5.5 games. In the process, they’ve improved their playoff odds from worse than a coin flip to a near certainty, upping the mark to 95.4% with 29 games to go following Monday’s 4–3 comeback win over the Red Sox.
