Enrolments in ACT public schools have declined for the fifth year in a row while non-government schools continue to gain students.
The number of public school pupils peaked in 2021 but since then the system has lost 1222 students.
Meanwhile, non-government schools have gained 2904 students over the past five years.
Independent and Catholic schools increased their enrolments in 2026 by 1.1 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively, while public school enrolments decreased by 0.5 per cent.
Author of Waiting for Gonski Tom Greenwell said the trend was "deeply problematic" because it increased segregation based on socio-economic background.
"The system is not improving results for children overall. It's merely sorting the children of the affluent and the privileged into some schools where they accrue certain benefits while leaving other children behind," he said.
"We should all be worried and deeply troubled by that."
Mr Greenwell said the shift to private schools was surprising because there wasn't a big difference in academic achievement between sectors.
"The trends we see are deeply problematic because we have consistent, expert evidence that segregation undermines everything that education aims to deliver. That's especially academic achievement but also more broadly."
He said if non-government schools continued to receive government funding while also raising fees, there should be an obligation to make these schools more accessible.
An Education Directorate spokesperson said the decline in public school enrolments at the preschool and primary school level was largely influenced by population changes driven by a declining birth rate.
"While the ACT public school sector share of total enrolments decreased from 62.5 per cent to 59.8 per cent between 2021 and 2026, similar trends have been reported nationally," the spokesperson said.
"Survey results indicate consistently high levels of satisfaction and strong school identification across parents/carers, staff, and students."
Catholic Archdiocese of Canberra Goulburn Education executive director David de Carvalho said he didn't accept that increasing Catholic school enrolments created social segregation.
"If you look at the profile of our students, we're very diverse in terms of our socio-educational spread. So I wouldn't accept that having a system such as ours, which is very affordable and which doesn't turn students away because their parents can't pay [creates segregation]," he said.
"We're actually mini sites of social cohesion and social inclusion, if you like, because we're so affordable, and because we're so welcoming."
He said parents were looking for welcoming and safe school communities for their children.
"We have people from all walks of life, all faith backgrounds and none, all socio-economic demographics in Canberra," Mr de Carvalho said.
"And we make a big deal out of the creating a warm and welcoming community, and of course that comes from our faith basis as well."
Catholic schools found most of their growth in primary schools and year 11 and 12 enrolments.
St Bede's Primary School in Red Hill was once on the brink of closure but has had an 81 per cent surge in enrolments over the past five years, from 161 to 292 students.
Merici College grew by 30 per cent over five years to a total of 1039 students, but St Clare's College had a 20 per cent drop in enrolments over the same time period to 872 students.
Two new independent schools boosted enrolments in that sector. Connections High School contributed to a 2 per cent increase in high school enrolments and Stromlo Forest Anglican School contributed to a 3.6 per cent boost in preschool enrolments.
Some schools, such as Marist College and Canberra Girls Grammar School, have experienced steady increases to enrolments in recent years.
Radford College, which increased fees by about 20 per cent this year, lost 38 students to a total of 2142 this year.
Brindabella Christian College found new owners last year after entering voluntary administration. The school lost 215 students between 2025 and 2026.
Amaroo School and Harrison School had the largest drops in enrolments for public schools, losing 335 and 356 students respectively in the past five years.
The newest public school, Strathnairn School, opened with 107 students from preschool to year 2 this year.
Association of Independent Schools of the ACT executive director Tracey Taylor said the enrolment growth in the sector had slowed in the past two years as some independent schools reach capacity.
She said ACT independent schools served families from a variety of backgrounds.
"We've got huge diversity of cultural, ethnic backgrounds, socio-economic backgrounds. Some of our schools, like Galilee School, they don't charge any fees at all. Other schools try and keep their fees as affordable as possible."
Mrs Taylor said parents were looking for a safe, welcoming environment with clear expectations for student behaviour.
"Parents do vote with their feet. If they're not happy with the school, they're not going to pay fees," she said.
"So the schools work really hard to make sure that they're providing top quality environment, top quality education, making sure that every child's needs are met."
Association of Parents and Friends of the ACT president Raffy Sgroi said many parents switched from public to private schools after an incident with bullying or violence that they felt was not addressed.
"It's not about you learning more or that it's a better education in a private school... this is my personal belief, but also what I'm hearing from parents, the main concern is always around safety."
An Education Directorate spokesperson said it took incidences and allegations of violence and bullying very seriously and new resources from the Anti-Bullying Rapid Review would be available for schools to better manage bullying from next year.
Mother of six and former MLA Giulia Jones said she and her husband chose to send their children to Trinity Christian School to align with their values.
However, one of her neurodivergent children moved to Alfred Deakin High School because her needs could not be met at the independent school.
"No schooling place is perfect, but at the end of the day, we really wanted our children to get a faith-based education because we are faith-based people," Mrs Jones said.
"We just tried to choose the thing that would set our kids up for our life philosophy and values. But we are also very grateful to government schooling because it's been the mainstay for one of my kids."
