Another day at the 2022 World Cup, another shock. A day after Argentina’s defeat to Saudi Arabia, another major power succumbed to Asian opposition as Germany was beaten 2-1 by Japan. Four years ago, Germany suffered its first first-round exit from a World Cup in 80 years. Fail to beat Spain on Sunday, and it could be missing out on the knockout stage for the second straight tournament.
Like Argentina, Germany won the expected goals (xG) battle, but like Argentina, it succumbed to familiar failings. Even before Timo Werner tore an ankle ligament before the World Cup, it was struggling to turn its domination of play into goals, and, without him, the absence of a striker has been sorely felt. The majority of xG models had Germany at around 3.5 goals (against 1.75 or so for Japan), and yet its only goal came from the penalty spot, with İlkay Gündoğan converting after a needless foul from Japan goalkeeper Shūichi Gonda. He redeemed himself, though, with a number of fine saves, particularly early in the second half, and especially on one three-save sequence in which he importantly kept the deficit at 1–0.
But Japan was always threatening, and it exposed the flaw that has been evident in Germany’s play since Hansi Flick took the national job after last year’s Euros. As at Bayern, Flick favors an extremely high defensive line. That is made possible by Manuel Neuer’s excellence as a sweeper-keeper, but it often feels that Germany relies on him, that the pressing structures that made the approach successful at the club level have not been replicated with the national side.
