The latest development in Trump’s war with China will impact NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) in 2025 and beyond, but does not remove the opportunity for share price upside. While sales of the H20 semiconductors have been effectively blocked, analysts estimate that it will have a limited impact on the business. Estimates vary but run in the mid-to-high single digits for EPS, a not insignificant figure for 2025 but not insurmountable over the longer term.
NVIDIA’s Q1 results will likely impact revenue and earnings, with most of the damage felt in balance sheet charges. This will impact equity but is likely to leave the substantial cash balance unchanged. The longer-lasting impact is reduced sales in China and deleveraging on the bottom line, but lost sales in China may not be a significant concern.
