The Republican preoccupation with transgender issues, which has resulted in hundreds of bills at the state and federal levels, may excite the party’s evangelical base. But analysts say all that enthusiasm for restricting the rights and health care of about 0.6 percent of Americans risks putting off swing voters.
Pollsters and strategists from both parties largely agree: Focusing on transgender issues could help Republicans in the general election if independent voters see the GOP as defending commonsense school policies from “woke” gender ideology run amok. Or it could end up hurting Republicans if voters think they’re just picking on a small, misunderstood set of individuals simply trying to live their lives.
“If you’re talking about suburban parents who are concerned about what’s going on in their public schools, this is an area where I think that Republicans have a big opportunity,” said Dan Judy, a Republican pollster at North Star Opinion Research. “The tone of how this is handled is extremely important because the vast majority of people, regardless of their views on trans issues, don’t want to treat people, especially children, cruelly.”
