'The cold is coming soon," gloated former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev last June. He predicted that the citizens of the European Union, deprived of the Russian gas that normally supplied about 40% of their energy, would be freezing in their homes when "General Winter" arrived.
At that point, he suggested, their support for Ukraine would wither and they would beg Moscow to restore their gas supply. President Vladimir Putin's price would be an end to Nato support for Ukraine, and the EU governments would gladly pay it. Game, set and match to Moscow.
It seemed a plausible argument at the time. Frans Timmermans, the vice-president of the European Commission and, therefore, the second most senior EU official, certainly took the threat seriously.
